Expert forecasts for the development of coronavirus in the world

At the end of December, a new virus appeared in the world - the coronovirus infection COVID-19. This is a severe viral infection that causes a dangerous disease. It can be mild to severe, and complications can include viral pneumonia. It entails acute respiratory failure, which can be fatal.

The danger is that a vaccine has not yet been invented for the virus, people do not have acquired immunity to it, so the mortality rate is high. Elderly people with weakened immune systems are at risk. Predictions about the coronavirus are contradictory. In sources you can find positive information, in others only negative. Let's try to figure it out.

The development of coronavirus by months

The virus was first detected in China. On December 31, 2019, the first case of infection was recorded in Wuhan. After the virus began to spread around the world with great speed. There are practically no countries in which a case of infection has not been registered. On January 30, WHO declared the situation an emergency, as the virus was recorded in all administrative regions of China and began to spread around the world.

In January 2020, the first European with coronavirus was registered. This is a German woman who returned from Shanghai. She did not immediately feel bad, after returning she went to work, talked with friends, so she managed to pass the disease on to many people. The spread of COVID-19 began to gain momentum, with multiple cases of the disease being recorded every day in different countries.

On February 11, the virus was given the name COVID-19. On March 11, WHO declares a coronavirus pandemic, with Europe becoming its center. At the same time, at the end of March, China announced that the virus was blocked in the country and lifted the previously established restrictions. On March 2, the first case of infection is registered in Russia.

At the beginning of April 2020, 180 countries of the world announced that they had cases of detection of this new viral infection.

The forecast for the spread of coronavirus is not encouraging - in 180 countries there are people who are infected and there are deaths.

Summer forecast

According to virologists, the coronavirus will be defeated by the end of June, but this will require tough measures. Before that, in the spring months, the situation will be at the same level, but by the end of May and beginning of June, there will be fewer and fewer cases of infection. You can believe it, if only because in the summer months the spread of viral infections falls due to high air temperatures.

When will the coronavirus end in China?

According to the situation at the end of March 2020, China announced the almost complete blocking of the virus and the minimum spread in the country. China is gradually returning to its former life - transport links are being restored, entertainment centers are opening, and so on.

Favorable prognosis

If we believe a favorable forecast, then in the summer the world will be able to, if they do not return to their former life, then the situation will improve. The outlook for the near future is positive if countries impose tough restrictions and people comply with them.

A vaccine against the new disease is being developed in different countries. If a vaccine is developed and at least 80% of the population is vaccinated, then the chances of reducing the incidence of a new virus are minimized.

By the way, the vaccine has already been invented, research is being carried out, so according to favorable forecasts, it will not be long to wait.

It was also recently announced that the BCG tuberculosis vaccine, which is given in the first days of life to children in the post-Soviet space, helps fight the virus. That is, it does not cure the disease, but helps to fight it.

Now quarantine has been introduced around the world, so there are chances to avoid a huge number of cases and it is worth hoping for it.

Unfavorable prognosis

The unfavorable prognosis for the development of coronavirus is that it will never be possible to overcome the infection. According to experts, everyone on the planet will get sick with this disease and there will be outbreaks every year. COVID-19 will become just a common flu-like illness. Until this happens, it will take 2-3 years.

The fight against the virus will continue for 1-2 years. At this time, people will die, there will be outbreaks of diseases. There is no hope that the disease will disappear in the summer. On the planet in some continent it is winter, and at the same time it is summer on another continent. That is, the coronavirus will migrate, and the peak will occur in the cold season.

The emergence of immunity to the disease will also not happen quickly - it will be when everyone has been ill with the virus. If everyone gets sick, then many will simply die. According to the Robert Koch Institute and its head Lothar Weiler, the pandemic will last at least two years.

Forecast of the dead

Covid-19 is a dangerous and insidious virus. He has already killed 50,000 people in the world and people continue to die.

Australian scientists predict deaths from coronavirus - at least 15 million people. This is an optimistic forecast, as they call it. Pessimistic terrible - about 68 million people. It is horrifying that scientists say that it is necessary to save the young, the elderly may not be saved. The Air Force also comes up with the same information.

The forecast of those who died from coronavirus is different in different sources, you always want to believe in a positive one, it’s worth talking about it. According to German scientists, the mortality threshold will not exceed 1.5 million people. According to other sources, the death rate will exceed 10-15 million people.

Forecasts in Russia

According to Russian President Putin, the coronavirus pandemic is under control and significant human casualties should not be expected. Tatyana Golikova, Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, even states that all rumors about the virus in Russia are inflated and you should not fully trust all the information that is broadcast on television and appears on the Internet. The authorities say that the panic is greatly exaggerated and urge the people to comply with the regime.

It is stated that the official data on the sick and dead are greatly exaggerated. The government has prepared a forecast up to mid-June, judging by it, there really is no need to panic.                  

The predictions are:

  1. Without the adoption of quarantine - by mid-April, 100,000 infected, while by mid-March only 10,000. By the beginning of May, the peak - infected can be up to 2.2 million (19% of the total population). By May, intensive care will need 50,000 people who will be in critical condition. The daily mortality rate increases by about 300 times. At the peak of the epidemic, 1,000 people a day will die. In three months, 30,000 people will die, while the annual mortality is about 120,000.
  2. With the adoption of quarantine, the peak of the pandemic falls at the end of April. The number of infected people is reduced by 10 times, that is, about 250,000 people are registered. The number of deaths will not reach the figure of 3,000 people. At the peak of the disease, mortality can reach 300 people per day.             

All data are given for the city of Moscow.

If tough measures are not taken, then in three months 70% of the country will be infected, and the death rate will be from 1 to 6 million people. Measures have been taken, you should not perceive the situation negatively, it is better to focus on positive forecasts.

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