Coronavirus (COVID-19) is an acute respiratory infection that spread around the world at the end of 2019. The first cases were found in China, Wuhan, and the initial focus of infection was the Huanan seafood wholesale market. In addition to seafood, bats, snakes, and birds were sold there. It is believed that the virus mutated in the body of the animal, and he had the opportunity to infect humans.
Infection can proceed both in a mild form (about 80% of cases), which does not require inpatient treatment and goes away on its own, or in a severe form, the complications of which may include viral pneumonia, respiratory failure.
People panicked during a large-scale pandemic. Many have lost their jobs, lost their salaries, but most importantly, everyone is afraid for their lives and the lives of their loved ones, so the question: “What will happen next with the coronavirus” is relevant.
Will the coronavirus be defeated
Virologists believe that the coronavirus will not be completely defeated. The pathogen will gain a foothold in the population and will annually affect the most susceptible: the elderly, people with chronic diseases. Regular vaccination will help, but it will appear at least in a year.
Russian virologist Svetlana Andreeva said that in 4 years, COVID-19 will become as common as the mass of SARS viruses, most people will develop immunity to it. Coronaviruses are common, they cause SARS. Another thing is that COVID-19 is a mutated virus, and so far a person has not adapted to it. In a year or two, its danger should decrease, since through repeated infection it will turn out to be not so virulent, that is, it will be easier to tolerate by people.
(Gas. Arguments and Facts, “We will not die.” Virologist - about scenarios for the development of the coronavirus epidemic)
As Svetlana noted, the virus does not have the task of killing a person, otherwise he will be left without a "master". But it is possible that it will take many more lives.
How long will the coronavirus in China
Foreign experience shows the success of the fight against infection. China has almost defeated the coronavirus. As of March 31, there are 2,396 people in Chinese hospitals with a confirmed diagnosis. A total of 81,439 people were infected. 93% of those infected have recovered! Such a decline is possible in such a short time only thanks to the introduction of strict quarantine measures and discipline in society.
However, a new wave of coronavirus in China is possible due to the flow of visitors. On Saturday, March 28, 693 imported cases from 42 countries became known, so how long the epidemic will last in China is still difficult to answer.
It is encouraging that China is returning to its usual rhythm of life. Since the end of March, people began to go to work, offices, factories, cafes are opening. However, the Chinese are still afraid of crowds and are wary of traveling. The country's economy has been hit hard. The Economist's analytics arm estimates that about 9 million people in China, who are predominantly employed in the service sector, have lost their jobs due to the pandemic.
How long does it take to win all over the world
Scientists and journalists make different predictions about this. It is important to filter out unnecessary information that provocateurs write to increase panic in society. A specific forecast is difficult to build, as it depends on how responsibly people will comply with quarantine and precautionary measures. Russian President V.V. Putin said that we will be able to overcome the coronavirus in less than 2-3 months, but the scientist of the Russian Academy of Sciences Simon Matskeplishvili believes that we will defeat the attack only in a year. He emphasized that the introduction of strict quarantine measures is now especially important. Their absence can lead to an increase in cases and deaths, which is now happening in Italy, Spain.
The most important role in the victory over the virus is played by the effectiveness of diagnostic equipment. South Korea has become an example, a leader in the fight against coronavirus, quickly establishing diagnostic capacity - now about 20 thousand people a day. The sick are sent to self-isolation. Due to timely measures, there is the lowest mortality rate from COVID-19 - only 1%! In Italy - about 10%. The USA is seriously late. The epidemic in the country began in late January, as in South Korea, but the United States did not have a significant part of the diagnostic equipment, and much of the rest turned out to be defective. Italy was also not ready for such a development of the scenario. There was not enough medical equipment, staff, hospital beds. In addition, there is a high percentage of older people, as Italy has a high life expectancy. The virus hits the elderly hard: their disease is severe and with complications.
Top 10 countries by the number of infected:
- USA - 155705
- Italy - 101739
- Spain - 85199
- China - 81470
- Germany - 64527
- Iran - 41495
- France - 40174
- UK - 22141
- Switzerland - 15923
- Belgium - 11829.
Countries with the highest death rates from COVID-19:
- Italy - 11.3%
- Spain - 8.7%
- Iran - 6.6%
- France - 6.4%
- Great Britain - 6.3%.
They won the time of the country where the virus hit later. They managed to prepare the equipment and take timely quarantine measures. Unlike Italy, Spain, the United States, Russia managed to prevent a rapid increase in the incidence. It is important to take measures to slow down the epidemic so that health systems can cope with the gigantic burden, emphasizes international health expert Nikolai Kryuchkov.
Consequences of the coronavirus
So, we will defeat the coronavirus. But what will happen to the global economy? Will there be a global financial crisis like 2008? According to the Oxford Economics think tank, global GDP in 2020 will lose about $1.1 trillion, or 1.3%, due to the coronavirus. Reasons for this fall: stop tourism, reduced consumption, the collapse of stock markets.
Undoubtedly, China is Russia's largest trading partner. Russia's export volume is $61 billion, 70% of which is the export of oil and other energy resources. However, a barrel of Brent oil is already worth 27.14 USD. Russia pledged to cut oil production by 228 thousand barrels per day. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has already said that due to the coronavirus pandemic, Russia is losing more than 1 billion dollars a day.