How long will the coronavirus epidemic end?

Coronavirus is an outbreak that started in December 2020 in Wuhan, China. In three months, it grew to epidemic proportions, as cases of infection were registered in many countries of the world - Italy, Russia, the Czech Republic, Ukraine, etc. According to official sources, in March 2020, 150 thousand cases of coronavirus infection were registered.

Is there an exact date when the coronavirus epidemic will end?

No expert can accurately answer the question of how long the virus will last in China. It depends on the speed of drug development. At the moment they are absent, so the epidemic is actively spreading.

Information on the exact number of infected people, their movement and contact with healthy people is not available. The duration of the epidemic is affected by how strictly quarantine and all preventive measures by healthy people will be observed. The World Health Organization has developed leaflets with rules for personal hygiene and other measures that minimize the risk of infection. All people should not only learn, but also strictly observe the rules.

The symptoms of coronavirus today are known and are similar to those of an acute respiratory disease. When the first symptoms of the disease appear, a person should be examined by a doctor.

When will the coronavirus in China end?

There is a favorable and unfavorable prognosis that indicates when the coronavirus will subside. With the rapid creation of a drug and its testing in laboratories, the prognosis is favorable. If the outbreak is contained and eliminated, this will reduce the possibility of the epidemic spreading. According to a favorable forecast, the coronavirus will pass in 3-6 months.

The poor prognosis hypothesis states that drugs will be produced within 18 months. It will take another 3-6 months to test the drugs and produce them in sufficient quantities. Since the epidemic is actively spreading throughout the world, during the creation of a vaccine and drugs, the number of infected people will increase by several hundred or thousand times. Difficulties will arise in the fight against coronavirus in third world countries, as there are no professionally trained personnel.

What factors should affect the spread of coronavirus?

Most people believe that the epidemic will subside in the summer, as it did in 2003 with SARS. But, 17 years ago, it was possible to overcome the epidemic thanks to the isolation of patients who were infected with the virus.

It is a misconception that colds caused by coronavirus are seasonal. People believe that epidemics do not spread in the summer, so the situation will improve with the arrival of warm weather. Scientists recommend not comparing the new coronavirus genotype with OC43, HKU1, 229E and NL63, as its development is influenced by various factors - the immune system and human actions, the environment, and a reduction in susceptibility to infection.

Coronavirus is a type of acute respiratory disease. It appeared in China and grew into an epidemic. Due to the frequent movement of people to different countries, the development of a pandemic is predicted - the development of an infectious process in most countries of the world. It is almost impossible to stop the development of pathology. The disease affects the pulmonary system and leads to a severe complication - viral pneumonia.

Environment

According to the data obtained during the experiments, it can be concluded that the spread of the virus is affected by absolute humidity. In extremely dry air, viruses multiply actively.

Despite the lack of information about COVID-19, it can be more actively transmitted during the winter. But, in the summer the situation will not change, since the epidemic is not able to subside on its own.

human action

During the winter period, holding events with a large crowd of people is a rarity. They are held in rooms with limited space, which often have poor ventilation, which increases the risk of an epidemic.

Infectious diseases develop most often in schools, which requires determining the frequency of infection of children with coronavirus. If this theory is confirmed, it is recommended that schools be quarantined.

The immune system

Melatonin is a hormone produced in the body to regulate sleep and wake cycles. The hormone is formed under the action of a photoperiod, the activity of which depends on the season. With a decrease in melatonin, the performance of the immune system worsens.

In the summer, people mostly stay outdoors, so the body is enriched with vitamin D, which positively affects the immune system. Scientists conducted studies in which it was found that a decrease in immunity is not the main cause of morbidity.

Compared to the flu, people have lower immunity to the coronavirus, so the epidemic can spread regardless of the season.

Reducing Susceptibility to Infection

Regardless of seasonal changes, the early stage of the epidemic is exponential due to the susceptibility of many people to infection. Once infected, the patient infects more than one person.

A decrease in the proportion of susceptible contacts leads to the peak of the epidemic and its subsequent decline. When the process is influenced by the environment, human actions, or a decrease in immunity, repeated diseases or another new epidemic may occur.

The theory of the coronavirus recession when summer comes

Scientists confirm that until recently, the fact of the influence of climate and humidity on the spread of FLU was studied. It is not known how these indicators affect the spread of coronavirus. The growth of influenza diseases is observed with excessively humid tropical air. COVID-19 is spreading regardless of climate conditions. As of early March, Singapore, which is located near the equator, had 150 cases of coronavirus infection.

When will a cure or vaccine be available?

At the moment, a vaccine against coronavirus and medicines to combat it have not been developed. The official name COVID-2019 indicates that the virus is not only spreading rapidly, but also mutating. Therefore, it is impossible to predict exactly when the coronavirus will end.

According to the World Health Organization, the first vaccine against coronavirus will be created in 1.5 years. Since the epidemic can pass the pandemic, experts suggest the possibility of using the vaccine without prior clinical trials.

In the People's Republic of China, pharmaceutical companies are developing drugs that aim to eliminate the virus. But, their effectiveness can be determined only after passing the therapeutic course.

On March 4, 2020, at a meeting with Vladimir Putin, Tatyana Golikova, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, announced the acceleration of the creation of a vaccine against COVID-2019 by domestic scientists. She claims that in Russia there are developments in the creation of drugs, so scientists are doing everything possible to speed up the process.

In the United States of America, a cure for the coronavirus is also being prepared. This was confirmed by President Donald Trump at a press conference. American scientists have already developed a drug that is currently being tested on laboratory mice. In April, it is planned to test the effect of the drug on humans. Experts say that the drug has a positive effect on mice.

WHO Program Director Michael Ryan argues that the disappearance of the coronavirus in 2020 is unlikely. Therefore, he recommends taking emergency measures to stop the infection worldwide. The disease is manifested by symptoms of malaise, fever, intoxication, inflammatory signs. When the first signs of the disease occur, it is recommended to consult a doctor, which will not only reduce the risk of an epidemic, but also save a person’s life. Despite the complexity of the situation, the authorities of all countries urge people not to create panic and adhere to the rules of prevention.