While the opinion of experts about coronavirus, the origin of the new strain of 2019-nCoV remains ambiguous. Presumably, the infection has its own trimeric class I protein, which enters the host cells and binds tightly. If the S-protein exists in the atmosphere in a metastable conformation, then when the viral membrane fuses with the membrane of the host cell, it undergoes a significant structural rearrangement.
A new strain of 2019-nCoV is being studied. Scientists around the world are working to develop a vaccine. The appearance of the first samples is expected in June this year.
Research on sources of infection
The epidemic began in the city of Wuhan (Hubei Province, the center of China). Namely, from the wet fish market, where products were traded in unsanitary conditions. Also, journalists unveiled another unusual object in Wuhan, which could also become a source of penetration of a new virus into the human environment.
Reference! People from the Wuhan market were the first to become infected. This is the first version put forward by scientists about the source of infection.
Indian biochemists believe that the virus arose artificially, because. the new inserts in the 2019-nCoV protein strongly coincide with HIV-1 gp120 and Gag. They have the same pI value of all 4 exposures in RNA molecules (about 10). Moreover, intelligence officers found out who infected people with the coronavirus. It is known for certain that the Wuhan Research Institute is developing not only medicines, but also biological weapons, conducting experiments on animals. The coronavirus could simply escape from the laboratory, start spreading. Perhaps it is no coincidence that we are talking about biological weapons. Although poisoning people in this way is not a Chinese tactic.
It is known that Chinese researchers are conducting experiments on monkeys. This opinion was put forward by many experts (in particular, Russian ones) when, in social networks in 2017, non-governmental organizations began to collect samples of biomaterials from Russians for incomprehensible purposes. Even V.V. Putin joined the question, declaring that foreigners were purposefully collecting material. Although geneticists denied. It was considered that it was impossible to make a biological weapon out of a virus. On the other hand, why does it take so long to find the pathogen?
Reference! The coronavirus pandemic has brought to mind other spreading diseases from China: bird and swine flu, SARS. Some scientists explain the phenomenon by crowding of citizens. Wuhan alone has 14 million people. And the climate in the country favors the reproduction and mutation of bacteria. Other experts are inclined to believe that China is testing a new type of weapon on guinea pigs or monkeys.
Igor Nikulin, a former member of the commission on chemical and biological weapons, assures that the Wuhan virus is a modified version of SARS. After all, 89% coincides with the structure of the SARS virus. According to him, the Chinese guessed the place and time of the launch of the infection. Wuhan Airport has flights all over the world. In addition, it is a major center of business and logistics. Another oddity: American diplomats began to evacuate from there long before the announcement of the coronavirus outbreak.
Of course, in order to model an epidemic, it is important to accurately calculate the rate of infection spread, the precise parameters of its release. However, it was American diplomats who previously put forward a version of a mathematical model, during the creation of which, after a month, 2.8 1,000,000 people in the world will fall ill, of which 100,000 will die. Regarding pneumatic weapons, no special scientific development was carried out. Much remains unclear. There is an assumption that biogenic weapons are developed exclusively against the Chinese. Russian military experts and politicians believed that the virus was created at an institute in the American jungle. But this turned out not to be true.
General information about coronavirus according to experts
COVID-19 is a highly contagious pathogen. It was not possible to isolate from it, so the number of infected people will increase in the coming months.
According to the dynamics of incidence, Italy is in 1st place. Then Britain, England. Today the Italian script is being repeated in America. With a bad development of events, the death rate can reach up to 1.5 million people. The increase in the number of cases, according to experts, will increase sharply after April 1. This means that a second wave of invasion is expected, despite the quarantine measures taken by all states in the world.
It is difficult to predict the extent of a pandemic. According to WHO, the mortality rate today is 3%. In China, the peak of one wave has passed. In Europe, it is expected only closer to summer. The second wave may begin in the autumn. After all, if we take into account the Spanish flu pandemic at the beginning of the 20th century, then there were waves for 3 years. The second one turned out to be the most dangerous.
American experts think the virus spreads easily in older people. They simply do not have time to develop immunity. So, according to forecasts, the virus can pick up up to 60% of the adult population.
Attention! Scientists are looking for vaccines. But according to conservative estimates, the creation will take at least 1 year. It turns out that by October-November 2020 the second wave of infection and a massive increase in the number of infected people cannot be avoided.
Chinese experts, after studying the structure of the virus, on the contrary, suggest a decline in the epidemic closer to June. French scientists refute this opinion. The virus will remain tenacious and in the heat, will not disappear anywhere. 70% of the population will be ill. Then a strong immunity is developed. We should be more relaxed about the pandemic. Coronavirus is not so dangerous for most of the population, and the quarantine introduced can only delay the time of infection.
Reference! There is no clear answer whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic. Coronavirus 2019-nCo tends to mutate. When it will completely disappear, no one can say for sure. Many believe that it is possible to win if people follow preventive measures, the authorities of all states will direct their forces to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
Research by Swiss scientists
Scientists in Switzerland are also interested in finding a vaccine. A team from the University of Burnay has already managed to find a digital non-infectious clone of the coronavirus, to describe in detail the three-dimensional structure of the S-protein. Cryoelectron microscopy was also a revolutionary discovery. The electron microscope allows you to get more accurate magnified images after freezing the samples. Scientists began to use liquid methane, exposing t to -160 degrees. As a result, the samples are transformed into an amorphous state (not crystalline ice).
A Swiss scientist at the University of Texas has created a three-dimensional model of the structure of an important element of the coronavirus S-protein. The resulting digital clone has become of interest to many scientific laboratories around the world. Surely it will be a breakthrough in the recognition of an unknown virus and the search for a vaccine. It remains only to find a substance that will deactivate the S-protein. Then the virus won't be able to spread.
Research by German scientists
German scientists about the coronavirus said that the danger to humans is 4-9 days. At this time, a large role is given to prevention, disinfection of surfaces with ethanol solutions, hydrogen peroxide.
The research was carried out in Germany. It has been found that a person can become infected even if the infection is on different surfaces. Donald Trump insisted that vaccine development take place in Germany, at CureVac, a biotech firm in Berlin. Trump is interested in finding a vaccine for the United States, so he tried to attract German scientists to continue working in America. Dan Menichella (chairman of the board of a tubing firm) visited the White House. At the meeting, there was talk about the rapid creation of a vaccine. The President assured that his team would carry out the development in a few months. However, he later left the post. Possibly because Trump insisted that he conduct Menichell's research with his team in Germany. The German government is interested in holding in Europe.
Research by Muslim scholars
Muslim scientists have estimated the spread of the virus. Their forecast for the development of the pandemic is disappointing. It is assumed that 70% of the world's population will be infected. Then the spread of the infection will follow one of the following scenarios:
- The incidence rate will drop sharply by June if countries strictly adhere to WHO recommendations.
- The procession of infection will be protracted.
Muslim scientists about the virus in China found that it lives up to 9 days at room temperature on glass, plastic, metal surfaces. Destroys traces of bacteria hydrogen peroxide, sodium hypochlorite, ethanol solution. But low temperatures, high humidity, on the contrary, create favorable conditions for the development of the virus. It is possible that the first cases of infection appeared in the Wuhan wet market for this very reason.
What do Ural scientists say?
Scientists from Yekaterinburg developed a flu drug 30 years ago. It was used during the 2016 Olympics for the Zika virus. Then we managed to stop tick-borne encephalitis in Krasnoyarsk. Presumably, he can defeat the Chinese coronavirus, because. enters the fight against a group of RNA viruses, to the family of which coronavirus belongs.
Ural scientists have revealed the original formula after synthesizing 10,000 molecules. So far, the medicine has not been used in the treatment of Chinese disease. More clinical studies are to be done. Although tests have already been carried out in the region. The drug really proved an active effect against influenza, tick-borne encephalitis. But the development has not gone further than Krasnoyarsk.
The percentage of virus transmission in Russia, along with other 30 countries, is no more than 0.1%. The maximum level of risk is in neighboring countries with China: France, the USA. More than 500 people have already died in China.
2019-nCo has an unconventional evolution, so scientists will think about the coronavirus and the nature of its occurrence for a long time to come. Today, an emergency mode has been introduced in all countries and Moscow. Let's hope only for the optimistic forecasts of experts and analysts.